The 2009 edition of the African Economic Outlook (AEO) has been launched in Pretoria on 27 July 2009 at the National Treasury, Pretoria.

The 2009 Outlook covers 47 African countries, up from 35 last year. The report finds the region gravely affected by the global economic downturn. Following half a decade of above 5 per cent economic growth, the continent can expect only 2.8 per cent in 2009, less than half of the 5.7 per cent expected before the crisis. The AEO's authors anticipate growth rebounding to 4.5 per cent in 2010. Growth in oil-exporting countries is expected to fall to 2.4 per cent in 2009 compared to 3.3 per cent for the net oil importers.

The collapse of commodity prices and plummeting demand from OECD countries will have an adverse effect on Africa's budget balances, with the regional budget deficit for 2009 predicted to be around 5.5 per cent of GDP compared to a surplus of 3.4 predicted in the AEO one year ago. Foreign direct investment decreased by about 10 per cent in 2008.

The 2009 AEO also finds that while official development assistance (ODA) increased in 2008, there are concerns over downward pressure on donor aid budgets due to the ongoing economic crisis. For most of the 1970s and 1980s, growth in Africa was largely constrained by internal factors. Decades of reform addressed most of the internal factors. Combined with a favourable external environment, Africa enjoyed half a decade of growth rates above 5%.

The financial crisis has now become an economic crisis; it has eroded benefits accumulated over the years of reform. With a projected growth rate of only 2.8%, and a bias on the downside, many people will fall back into poverty. This is a setback beyond the control of Africans and is likely to be protracted. Using an updated methodology, the Outlook reports that only a handful of African countries are on track to meet the target of halving the share of the population living on less than one dollar a day by 2015.